Russia’s Crude Exports Decline Amid Sanctions and Geopolitical Tensions

Russia’s crude oil exports have fallen to 3.25 million barrels per day, marking a significant drop of 530,000 barrels since mid-October. The decline follows U.S. sanctions targeting Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, disrupting flows and tightening pressure on Moscow’s energy revenue.

Diplomatic efforts continue as U.S. and Russian officials meet in Abu Dhabi to discuss a potential peace plan for Ukraine. Meanwhile, military tensions persist, with Ukrainian strikes on Black Sea ports further complicating Russia’s export routes. Indian refiners are shifting to alternative suppliers, leaving more Russian crude stranded at sea.

Export income has plummeted to $1.13 billion over the past 28 days, the lowest since April 2023. Urals crude from the Baltic averaged $46.37, while Black Sea barrels dipped to $44.77. Pacific ESPO crude also eased to $55.80, with Indian-bound cargoes weakening to $60.04—a March 2023 low.

The financial squeeze coincides with debates over former U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed peace framework for Ukraine. European allies and Kyiv remain skeptical, emphasizing the need for further development before considering it a viable solution.